Замедление темпов роста промышленности строительной техники Китая по-прежнему имеет многообещающие перспективы
Время выпуска:
2024-04-12
Ключевые слова:
Строительная техника,Отклонение
In the first half of the year,the construction machinery industry in China showed an overall trend of first growth and then decline.After experiencing explosive growth in the first quarter,industry sales in April began to show a significant month on month decline,and continued to decline in May and June thereafter.It can be said that the high-speed growth trend of the construction machinery industry in 2010 reversed in April 2011.Whether this will become a turning point in the industry is of great concern to the industry.
The growth rate of the construction machinery industry has slowed down,and sales have declined
According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association,in the first quarter of 2011,the sales revenue of the main products of major enterprises in the national construction machinery industry increased by 56.6%year-on-year,and the sales volume increased by 53.3%year-on-year;From January to April,sales revenue increased by 51.8%year-on-year,and sales volume increased by 39.4%year-on-year;From January to May,sales revenue increased by 47%year-on-year,and sales volume increased by 32%year-on-year.It can be seen that in the first five months of 2011,the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue and sales in the construction machinery industry slowed down month by month,and the decline was significant.Among them,the growth rate of sales revenue decreased by nearly 10 percentage points compared to the first quarter,while sales decreased by 21.3 percentage points.
С апреля 2011 года ситуация с продажами основных продуктов строительной техники, включая экскаваторы, погрузчики, бульдозеры и краны, резко снизилась, причем продажи начали значительно снижаться. Абсолютные продажи в мае и июне еще больше снизились. Согласно статистическим данным, в апреле продажи экскаваторов снизились после достижения месячного максимма в марте, с месяцем на Месячное снижение на 38,79%; Погрузчики снизились на 2,86% в годовом исчислении и на 28,27% в месячном исчислении; Бульдозеры увеличились на 1,2% в годовом исчислении и снизились на 32,81% в месячном исчислении. В мае продажи экскаваторов показали первый отрицательный рост с 2011 года, снизившись год к году на 12,4%. В то же время месяц за месяцем снижение еще больше расширилось до 47,8%; Хотя продажи погрузчиков оставались стабильными год к году, они снизились на 21,3% месяц к месяцу; Продажи бульдозеров сократились на 34% год к году и 26,1% месяц к месяцу. В июне продажи экскаваторов, погрузчиков и бульдозеров продолжили снижаться, причем месячное снижение составило 27,6%, 14,8% и 14,5% соответственно, но все они немного сократились по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем.
In response to the slowdown in the growth rate of the construction machinery industry,especially the significant decline in sales of some leading products,the"turning point theory"is constantly heard.Some industry insiders have stated that a new turning point in the development of construction machinery has emerged,and the industry's previous high growth is difficult to reproduce.In the future,it may show a low growth trend,and even decline in multiple months.
The recent policies introduced by the government to support the construction of water conservancy facilities and affordable housing still have a certain driving effect on the construction machinery industry.It remains to be seen whether the turning point has arrived.However,the long-term high-speed growth of an industry is unsustainable and requires adjustment and rational return.
The decline in industry prosperity is mainly due to a decrease in demand
Generally speaking,the sales of the construction machinery industry can be divided into low and high seasons.A slight decline in sales in April is a normal seasonal fluctuation,but a 30%decline in the entire industry in April 2011 is indeed rare.The main reason for this is the overspending of sales in the early stage and the decline in market demand caused by national macroeconomic regulation.
At present,the competition in the construction machinery market has become increasingly fierce.In the first quarter of 2011,in order to seize more market share,various manufacturers adopted continuously upgrading sales methods or excessive marketing,thereby overdrawing some market demand.From the market performance of major listed companies in the construction machinery industry,some companies have vigorously promoted their products through mortgage,zero down payment,and reduced financing lease interest,resulting in a significant year-on-year increase of 43.06%in sales in the first quarter,and early release of some user demand.At the same time,the accounts receivable balance of the entire construction machinery industry also reached 100.37 billion yuan,a significant increase of 69.5%compared to the beginning of the year,making the operating cash flow of the industry increasingly tight,and the net operating cash flow decreased significantly year-on-year.
Since 2011,in order to regulate the macroeconomic situation,the country has introduced a series of financial policies that limit the credit limit of industries such as real estate.The impact of credit tightening on the construction machinery industry is mainly reflected in two aspects:first,it affects downstream demand in the industry,mainly due to delayed construction progress of some ongoing projects and delayed commencement of some originally planned projects;Secondly,it has affected the marketing efforts of construction machinery enterprises.Starting from April,some enterprises have strengthened risk control and actively reduced the proportion of credit sales.At present,the impact of credit tightening on the sales of construction machinery cannot be quantified,and it is expected that the sales situation will be affected throughout the year.
Multiple favorable factors,promising future prospects
Due to the implementation of monetary tightening policies by the country,the short-term decline in demand for construction machinery may continue for a period of time.But in the long run,affordable housing,water conservancy construction,railway construction,and export recovery will provide new impetus for industry development.
The State Council executive meeting held on July 12,2011 proposed to improve relevant policy measures,increase government investment and loan support,and ensure that all 10 million units of affordable housing will start construction by the end of November.This means that the construction of affordable housing nationwide is expected to reach its peak in the second half of the year,which will directly drive the market demand for construction machinery,especially earthwork machinery and concrete machinery.
Water conservancy construction is also expected to become a new growth point in the construction machinery industry.In 2011,the No.1 central document of the central government focused on water conservancy construction,proposed to increase public financial investment in water conservancy,and strive to double the average annual investment in water conservancy of the whole society in the next 10 years compared with 2010.It is expected that water conservancy investment will accelerate in the second half of the year,and water conservancy construction investment projects will start on a large scale,benefiting the construction machinery industry.
The export of construction machinery is growing rapidly.The global economy gradually rebounded in 2011,with an increasing demand for construction machinery.From January to April 2011,the export value of China's construction machinery industry reached 4.2 billion US dollars,an increase of 53.3%compared to the previous year.Among them,the cumulative export of complete machines reached 2.71 billion US dollars,a year-on-year increase of 52.5%;The export of components reached 1.49 billion US dollars,a year-on-year increase of 54.8%.
Despite the current slowdown in the growth rate of the construction machinery industry,considering various favorable factors,the China Construction Machinery Industry Association predicts that the industry's sales revenue will increase by about 17%in 2011,and the export volume will increase by more than 25%,returning to the historical high level of 2008.
Accelerate transformation and upgrading to achieve the goals of the 12th Five Year Plan
On July 31,2011,the 12th Five Year Plan for the development of China's construction machinery industry was officially released.The plan points out that according to the development strategy of adjusting the structure and transforming the growth mode,it is predicted that the sales scale of China's construction machinery industry will reach 900 billion yuan by 2015,with an average annual growth rate of about 17%,including exports of about 26 billion US dollars.In 2015,the sales revenue and export value of the entire industry more than doubled compared to 2010.
In order to achieve the above goals,the construction machinery industry should follow the development strategy proposed in the plan,continuously accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading,make promoting independent innovation the central link of enterprise transformation and development,fully leverage the leading and supporting role of technology,coordinate the implementation of major scientific and technological projects,strengthen industry basic and common technology research,focus on breaking through core technologies and key technologies in the industry,especially achieve the autonomy of key components,develop high-end equipment manufacturing,comprehensively enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises,and complete the transformation from a manufacturing country to a manufacturing strong country as soon as possible.
In addition,in the process of industrial upgrading,on the one hand,it is necessary to find new market growth points,eliminate outdated production capacity,guide and concentrate limited resources on weak links in industry development,and at the same time,be wary of blind expansion of production capacity for some high-end products,prevent excessive redundant construction,avoid regional production capacity structure convergence,strengthen coordination from a macro perspective,and maintain a balance between total supply and demand;On the other hand,we should actively explore international markets,especially emerging markets,optimize the structure of export products,and improve the level of international cooperation.
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Рим Jingfu Cheng Община, № 10 Zhangba Road, улица Zhangba, высокотехнологичная зона, город Xi 'an, провинция Шэньси, Китай
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